What this election result means for American democracy

By Sree Sajeev

Former U.S. president Donald J. Trump won the battle against current Vice president Kamala Harris to become the 47th president of the United States. Trump is the second president to return to power after losing a re-election. In the morning hours of Wednesday, Trump declared victory after it was clear that he was going to win the key swing state of Pennsylvania with its 19 college votes. As Americans and people across the world process the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, it’s interesting to reflect on these results and what they mean for the future of American democracy. 

Amélie Washington, first-year IRPS student from the institute, was excited for the prospect of having the first woman president and described the election to be the most polarised one but one would determines the continuity of democratic rights in America. However, like most of the students we talked to, Amélie was voting against rather than voting for.

The battle according to most pollsters came down to key seven swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Nate Silver despite his narrow margin prediction across these states, shared his gut feeling that Trump would ultimately win in an op-ed for the New York Times. 

‘The women factor in the election’

The voter issues across these states vary, while Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are voting on economic issues of housing rates, daily wage, unemployment. Pew Research Centre study on North Carolina demographic  showed that for voters  of the state abortion rights was a pressing issue after the state reduced the legal limit of abortions from 20 weeks to 12 weeks in  2023 in the aftermath of overturning of 1973 Roe v Wade ruling. Trump’s stance on abortion has been somewhat inconsistent: while he supports legal ban on abortions, he advocates for leaving the decision to individual states. Many analysts interpret this as a “non-committal stance,” suggesting it’s an election strategy aimed at avoiding alienation of young women voters, a tactic that appears to have worked with White voters. 

Jaclyn Lee, first year MINT student who voted in North Carolina, said  that abortion rights might have influenced women voters to support Harris. She noted that the issue could have appealed to White women voters, who typically lean Republican. But the results on November 5th told a different story. CNN’s exit polls revealed that Harris secured a 10 point lead over Trump among female voters. This marks a decrease from Biden’s 15 point margin advantage in 2020 and Clinton’s 13 point margin in 2016, suggesting that women showed up less in number for Harris  compared to her Democratic predecessors. This is alarming since most young women were predicted to vote in favour of Kamala. But these surveys have a bias of studying just categories of women and not their intersections. 

This shows that abortion rights as a single issue did not cater to all intersections of women. According to KFF survey of women voters, women who were running middle income households looked to be more concerned with inflation rates. Women are not the only ones, working class as a whole seems to have left their democratic loyalties. 

‘Soul searching’ for Democratic party

The Democractic party needs to reflect on its growing loss of working — class voters, many of whom traditionally voted Democratic but are now being drawn to the Republican side by promises of tax cuts and other economic benefits. Trump has also made inroads among the Latino and  Hispanic voters of the working class. According to Reuters, Trump has secured 55% of the Hispanic male vote, a 19 point increase from the 36% he received four year earlier. Senator Bernie Sanders criticised the Democratic party for abandoning its huge working class voter base and not legislating policies that cater to them. “ While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change.” Senator Sanders said in an official statement released on Nov. 6. Trump has managed to pierce into the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin that helped Joe Biden win 2020 elections through catering to the working class male population. David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University noted in an interview with Al Jazeera that Harris campaign struggled to connect with this demographic, leaving an opportunity that Trump capitalised on. His rhetoric is very male centric and his campaign was marketed through interviews with popular male podcasters and youtube channel hosts whose main viewership is this demographic of working class young men. This section of young men believes the economy is faltering due to inflation and that conditions were significantly better four years ago. Apart from economic issues, illegal immigration and border security were also key concerns for young Latino voters of states like Pennsylvania — they wanted immigration to be regulated and inflation to be controlled, which they didn’t think was done by the previous regime. 

Another interesting demograph that shows a change of stance is the Arab Americans in states like Michigan where there seemed to be a movement against the existing regime to punish them for the genocide in Gaza. Here more than voting for Trump they are voting against Harris. Arab Americans having Lebanese, Egyptian, Syrian descent have been vocal against Biden- Harris’ policy on Israel- Palestine. In the suburb of Dearborn, Michigan this anger was tangible. According to the election report published by Al Jazeera, Harris lost to Trump by more than 2600 votes in Dearborn. 

What didn’t work for Kamala

Analysing key issues in major battlegrounds, one sees that America has voted differently for this election and there is anger in people for change. Kamala’s platform, while tackling the relentless polarising rhetoric of the Republican party, failed to address day-to-day concerns that the voters have prioritised in this election. Her messaging of maintaining the status quo and having no issues with it didn’t quite resonate well with the voters, she was part of a status quo they didn’t like and Trump must’ve seemed like an option for departure from the status quo. She is still perceived as an establishment figure representing a sort of continuity with policies rather than the change the American people were looking for. 

Today what we are looking at is a fractured future of democratic institutions because Trump’s second term will be detrimental to democratic institutions, especially ‘the guardrails of democracy’. Trump’s “Agenda 47” outlines a plan to remove what he describes as the “Deep State,” aiming to dismantle entrenched bureaucratic power.The former president wants politicise the civil service, wants to replace federal employees with political appointees, he wants to exercise power over Supreme Court appointments and tight control over republican congressmen. Hardcore ‘MAGA’  believers are predicted to occupy government positions in the second ‘regime’. The implementation of the immigration policy of mass deportation proposed during the campaign  looks very concerning for immigrants living within the states. His re- election will grant Isreal unchecked immunity, with foreign policy shifting to further support Israel’s ongoing genocide of the palestinian people. With Trump coming to power with a popular vote  in 2024, American democracy hangs by a fragile thread.

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